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News and commentary about elsewhere covered by Quincy Quarry News

Running the numbers
A file photo

Quincy Quarry News’ financial and other affairs desk burned the midnight oil running the numbers during the Quarry’s recent brief hiatus.

The numbers run?

Those needed to be run to be able to soundly endeavor to prognosticate the local tax increase likely to hit the fan come 2027 as well as do so even earlier than Quincy Quarry News has successfully done in recent years with little more than tea leaves to read and thus having to rely on years of experience to fill in the blanks.  

Following the money
An oxycom.com image

A lot of blanks.

The first round of the numbers run posed so great a likely increase that the Quincy Quarry’s quants both ran as well as then repeatedly reran the numbers almost as often as they suffered sleepless nights tossing and turning when the numbers consistently keep ndicated ugly for local property tax payers during every pro forma endeavored.

The core problem?

;What me worry?”
An Easy Money Associates/Orion Pictures

How the Koch Maladministration tapped almost $35 million in stray and arguably secret stash reserves last December so as trim the increases to local property tax bills needed to fund a just short of record breaking going away 13% FY 2026 spending increase from the previous fiscal year. .

Why the concern?

If other no honey pots of reserves are available in the same amount to tap from the city’s woefully thin reserves when 2027 property tax rates are set later this year, local homeowners are looking likely to be whacked with upwards of roughly 10% property tax increases>

In turn, such a considerable property tax increase would give rise to a likely record percentage increase in local ax bills even given but near level spending plus $6 million in scheduled raises for rank and file city employees along with covering $5 million in snow removal spending above the but $2.25 million budgeted. .

Further note that a 10% property tax increase from 2026 tax bills would work out to somewhere in the range of a $750 to $850 dollar increase on the 2027 property tax bill on median assessed value residential property (roughly $635,000 +/- per available data).

Even more problematic, local services provided during FY 2027 would so have to remain at best flat absent any secret stash reserves to tap to pay down the local property tax levy when 2027 tax rates are set in December.

Angry taxpayers with politicians’ heads on pikes
An old panting

Needless to say, on the order of a 10% increase in local property tax bills in 2027 for at best the same level of services as 2026 will likely not play well with local taxpayers, especially as inflation continues to take bites from everyone’s wallets.

Moreover, such a steep increase would typically not be possible given Proposition 2 1/2 were it not for the Koch Machine having untapped property tax levy carrying over from FY 2026 available to tap come the setting of local 2027 property tax rates in December.  

Currently, the City of Quincy has $24 million in untapped property tax levy available to tap and which would allow City Hall to tax local property owners $24 million more than would otherwise be the case absent available untapped tax levy per Prop 2 1/2. 

Enough already
A meme file photo

In turn, given reasonable suspicions that there is likely nowhere near $35 million in other reserves available to tap to mitigate the CY 2027 property tax levy, not to mention that threadbare Stabilization Fund reserves are now below to well below Massachusetts Department of Revenue and the city’s credit rating reviewer Standard and Poor’s expectations, ugly is looking likely for property taxpayers in 2027.

Serious ugly.

Assuming but merely level funding plus $6 million to cover rank and file employees plus $5 million more to cover this winter’s over budget spending on snow removal, roughly $20 million of the $24 million in available untapped property tax levy per Prop 2 1/2 would clearly appear to have be tapped to see cap the nut in 2027.

A free-spending politician
a ThePeoplesVoice.org graphic image

In turn, tapping $20 million in untapped levy would allow for property taxation to run roughly 5.5% higher than would be the case if no untapped levy were available to tap absent a Prop 2 1/2 tax override.

In terms of dollars, tapping $20 million in untapped property tax revenue works out to adding roughly $400 more to the median assessed value tax bill than would be the case if $20 million in untapped levy were not available to tap.

Additionally, taxing so much more than the Prop 2 1/2 limit than would be possible were there no untapped levy to tap will surely see Quincy homeowners looking at among the highest property tax bills in the Commonwealth on duly handicapped assessed value if not the largest property tax bite

Further note that the projected property tax increases factors in a reasonable to arguably generous expectation that the city employees pension funding obligation shortfall assessment will see a modest trimming given that the Quincy retirement board significantly increased its expected rate of return on the city pension fund’s investment portfolio in year and so make the pension fund look less underfunded on an actuarial basis in what is looking to not be a good year for investing.

In turn, to allow Quarry readers to fine-tune property tax increases when more data might be provided, figure on roughly a $25 increase on the median assessed value CY 2027 property tax bill for every million the mayor’s soon to be posed FY 2027 budget runs over $475 million or $25 less for every million less the final budget runs less than $475 million and/or every million the mayor might have to tap in the way of heretofore undisclosed secret stashes that can be tapped to pay down the CY 2027 property tax levy.

Further note that the projected property tax increases factors in a reasonable to arguably generous expectation that the city employees pension funding obligation shortfall assessment will see a modest trimming given that the Quincy retirement board significantly increased its expected rate of return on the city pension fund’s investment portfolio in year and so make the pension fund look less underfunded on an actuarial basis in what is looking to not be a good year for investing.

In turn, to allow Quarry readers to fine-tune property tax increases when more data might be provided, figure on roughly a $25 increase on the median assessed value CY 2027 property tax bill for every million the mayor’s soon to be posed FY 2027 budget runs over $475 million, $25 less for every million less the final budget runs less than $475 million and/or every million the mayor has to tap in the way of heretofore undisclosed secret stashes that can be tapped to pay down the CY 2027 property tax levy.

And for the final money shot, with it anticipated that Mayor Koch will likely have to tap on the order of $20 million of the currently $24 million in untapped property tax levy to fund his FY 2027, absent substantial to draconian cuts in FY 2028 spending he will likely need to see a Prop 2 1/2 tax override approved for years to many years going forward as he has steadily worsened the City of Quincy’s structural budget deficit given years of his engaging in koching-up annual spending as well as his giving rise to various expensive litigation and damages so imposed.  

And finally, if one is confused by it all, not only is such understandable as the sum of things is complicated, working such is  key to the Koch Machine’s take on pattern or practice when it comes to its posing koch and mirrors about local taxation and koched-up city spending..

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