Los Angeles Times poll: Trump on top of Clinton

– News from elsewhere covered by Quincy Quarry News

OMG, it has come down to this …
A Twitter image

Trump is on top of Clinton per a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California poll.

This is the first time that Trump has enjoyed a lead in a long, long, long time in a major national poll outside of the only to be expected polling pop he enjoyed briefly following last month’s Republican National Convention – especially as Cleveland did not burn to ground during the convention as many had feared and perhaps at least a few had hoped would happen.

Granted, Trump’s 2% better polling results are well within the usual 4% statistical margin of error for polls; even so, it would appear that both candidates have seen their respective post convention polling pops fizzle away.

Clinton is in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory here. But it would hardly be the first time, would it?

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) December 19, 2015

Vote earlier – and often …
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More importantly, with the 2016 Rio Olympics over, the baseball season still with many games left to play and pro football just barely into preseason, surely a suddenly perhaps competitive 2016 presidential race race could fill the current void for enjoying blood sport other than perhaps Great White Shark hunting off of the Cape.

And as for the Los Angeles Times/USC poll itself, what the Quincy Quarry quantitative analysis nerds found interesting are the interesting ways that this poll is attempting to address long-known methodological problems and resultant errors with essentially all traditional polling techniques.

For example, how old school polls would appear to come up a bit short discerning the likely actual voter support for Republican candidates. 

Why not go with the original rather than either of the two Nixon poseurs?
A Committee to Reelect the President image

Pollsters have long been aware of how their polls typically under count support Republican candidates by several percentage points and thus some have long made behind closed doors adjustments to their data. 

What women want?
A political rally photo

Theories for the under counting include that perhaps Republican candidate-leaning voters are more likely to ignore pollsters and/or perhaps even purposefully tell pollsters that they are voting for a non-Republican candidate.

These theories are but working speculative theories, however, and thus the resultant modest adjustments made by many pollsters to their initial statistically-derived polling results are mostly made more by the seat of the pants heuristic adjustments than ones based on rigid assessment and statistical methodologies.

Winging it
An iconic White House Photo

In other words, winging it.

Granted, what the poll design team behind the Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California is trying to do to instead quantitatively endeavor to address the above noted long time measurements problems with most other polling methodologies may not prove statistically valid, but at least this polling team is giving it the old college try.

In particular, one such effort includes how this poll creatively updates its data in a way that would appear to have the potential to both more readily and effectively discern identify the preferences of the electorate.

In turn, given this poll’s various innovative methodological nuances, expect Quincy Quarry to monitor this poll for at least some of the course of the remaining campaign season.

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