<![CDATA[David price | quincy news-Boston Sports Blog by Quincy Quarry
New President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has his work cut out for him this winter. After three last-place finishes in the past four years, the onus is on Dombrowski to find a way to build on the Red Sox’s surge in the last two months and finally escape the AL East basement.
He won’t have as much money to spend in free agency as his predecessor Ben Cherington did last year (an unfortunate byproduct of Cherington’s tenure that most people leave out when raving about the farm system he built for Dombrowski), but he has ammunition to make trades and enough money to make a single big splash if he desires to.
Dombrowski made it very clear at his recent press conference that finding a “horse” for the rotation is a priority. Someone to lead the rotation, and compete hard for a win every five games. He also mentioned that they need to rebuild the bullpen, and add some depth to the lineup. This was all painfully apparent to anyone who watched in 2015, so instead of rehashing Dombrowski’s own assessment, I’m going to form a new plan.
It will hit all of Dombrowski’s needs, of course, but I’m going to predict which players Dombrowski will call on to fill those needs. So, without further ado, the 2015 Red Sox Off-season Plan:

Step 1: Acquire an Ace

The Target: David Price

This one appears to make too much sense. Dombrowski is clearly a fan of Price, having traded for him while working in Detroit, and it would be a surprise to see the Blue Jays retain the lefty. Price is also the only free agent starter who qualifies as an “ace” and has pitched for an AL East (in fact he has pitched for two). Making the switch to the offensively loaded division has proved troublesome for other pitchers, particularly from the National League.
Since moving to Kansas City, fellow big fish Johnny Cueto has not been as sharp (despite a lights out performance in the Royals game 5 ALDS win), and his ERA ballooned to 4.76 after the trade. Jordan Zimmermann, too, is a lifetime National Leaguer, and neither Scott Kazmir nor Jeff Samardzija has the ability that Price does. The wild card could be if Zach Greinke is willing to pitch in Boston, as his age could lead to a shorter contract.
Count me among the crowd that finds it unlikely the Red Sox trade for an ace. Headlining the list of trade targets are Matt Harvey, Chris Sale, and Sonny Gray, and while all three of these young aces would be outstanding in Boston, the early indications are that they would cost either Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart. Those three players are the foundation of the lineup going forward and are untouchable in my opinion.

Other Candidates: Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Jordan Zimmermann, Sonny Gray

Bolster the Bullpen

The Target: Aroldis Chapman

The Red Sox decided last winter to try and outsmart the rest of the league by picking players who could throw low strikes for ground balls instead of the power pitchers other teams were vying for. This plan backfired in every regard, as Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Joe Kelly were all clobbered by opposing batters for most of the season. David Price is a power pitcher. By trading for Chapman, the Sox will have arguably the game’s best power pitcher in their bullpen.
Throwing fastballs in triple digits has become more frequently seen in today’s pitchers, but there is only one who consistently dials it up over 100. Chapman has been languishing on a struggling Reds team the last two seasons, and the team finally appears willing to sell after dealing Cueto midseason. Imagine having to face Koji’s 88-mph splitter in the 8th inning, and then somehow prepare yourself for a 15 MPH increase against Chapman in the 9th. Lethal.
Unlike Price, Chapman is not a free agent, and the report at midseason was that when the Nationals inquired about Chapman the price was two top-5 prospects. The Red Sox have a better farm system, so the price will be more tolerable but there’s a good chance a prospect like Andrew Benintendi or Rafael Devers winds up going back to Cincinnati. This will be tough to swallow, but the addition of Chapman and return of Uehara would immediately make the Red Sox bullpen credible, and with Robbie Ross, Junichi Tazawa, and perhaps Pat Light in hand, the team may not need to spend more money on volatile free agent relievers.

Other Candidates: Craig Kimbrel, Tyler Clippard, Darren O’Day

Trade a Starting Pitcher

The Target (or Verdict): Clay Buchholz

Yes, Buchholz has looked phenomenal over the past two seasons. But he also has barely stringed together a full season’s worth of starts over that time and has been injury riddled throughout his career. Trading Buchholz is the definition of boom or bust. He could very well perform as one of the best pitchers in baseball for whichever team trades for him… but based on history, it is more likely he pitches quite well for about ten starts before imploding or hitting the disabled list.
The Red Sox have five starters for next season, but need to bring in an ace and will thus have an extra starter. Rick Porcello is not going anywhere (no matter how much fans wish he would), and Eduardo Rodriguez has firmly entrenched himself in the rotation. The alternatives would be to move Joe Kelly to the bullpen (or trade him), or trade Wade Miley. I don’t think the Red Sox are ready to give up on Kelly after his late resurgence.
As for Miley, he is definitely a reasonable option to consider. But he worked hard all season long, makes half the money Buchholz does, doesn’t have an injury history, and really shows passion and effort. I will almost always take a high ceiling over a low floor, but in this case, Buchholz has worn out his welcome and will bring back a better trade return than Miley too.

Other Candidates: Wade Miley, Joe Kelly

Sign an Outfielder

The Target:…Chris Denorfia

Hear me out, I know Denorfia isn’t the flashiest name in a free agency class that includes Yoenis Cespedes and Jason Heyward, but the team won’t have much money to spend. Instead, they will have to think strategically. Barring a trade of Jackie Bradley Jr. (or, God forbid, Mookie Betts), next year’s outfield will be Rusney Castillo, Bradley Jr., and Betts. The weakest of the bunch appears to be Castillo, who may outperform Bradley Jr. at the plate, but certainly cannot impact the game on defense the same way.
Castillo flashed some promise when finally called up to Boston, but bookended his promising stretch with two very dry spells at the plate (much like Bradley Jr.). Upon closer examination of Castillo’s struggles, one can see that he was far more successful against left-handers than right-handers. Denorfia, on the other hand, has the opposite pattern of success and would make a very ideal platoon partner with Castillo in left field.
The alternative would be to trade one of our outfielders for an ace like Sonny Gray, and then spend money on an outfielder like Heyward. The problem with this approach is that it blocks all of our outfield prospects for the foreseeable future. We would have nowhere to play Benintendi (supposing we kept him) or the heralded Yoan Moncada (currently an infielder, but there are no openings there, either). Denorfia is a fine choice.

Other Candidates: Will Venable, Rajai Davis, Jason Heyward

Try as Hard as Humanly Possible to Trade…

The Target: HANLEY RAMIREZ!

We were wrong. No matter how good you are at the plate, it’s possible to lose your team games if you’re as bad at defense as Hanley Ramirez was in 2015. The signing didn’t really make sense, but we thought it would work out. We wanted it to work out. Manny made it work, why not Hanley? His injury certainly didn’t help matters and by season’s end he was not only not contributing in any meaningful way, he was detracting in every way.
He was toxic to team chemistry with an impressive level of apathy, he was comically bad in left field, and couldn’t even get on base by season’s end. Dombrowski has to hope that he can find some taker for Ramirez, like he did Prince Fielder two years ago. There is no reason to expect Ramirez will be any better at handling first base than he was at handling left field.
It seems like a longshot, but it’s certainly not unprecedented. The Red Sox will have to hope they can find a trade match and should be willing to take back a different bad contract in return. Hanley’s only value will come as a DH, and with Ortiz in Boston for at least another year, that means he must be moved.

Other Candidates: Pablo Sandoval, Allen Craig, Rick Porcello


 

So that’s all I’ve got! Let me know what you think of my plan in the comments. Go Sox!

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